A tale of two futures - Kathy Varol

A tale of two futures

cautionary tale

In 2000, Blockbuster was the undisputed king of home entertainment. Families flocked to its 5,000 stores every Friday night renting DVDs, grabbing popcorn, and locking in for weekend movie marathons. It wasn’t just a ritual—it was the way to experience home entertainment.

At the same time, a small company called Netflix was mailing DVDs out to individual customers, struggling for market share. Reed Hastings, Netflix’s co-founder, approached Blockbuster with a proposal: he wanted to sell Netflix to Blockbuster for $50 million.

Blockbuster laughed him out of the room.

Renting movies online? It sounded absurd. Why pivot when they were sitting on a business model that dominated the market? They couldn’t see the writing on the wall.

Fast forward a few years. Netflix had transformed the entertainment industry by streaming movies directly to customers’ homes, leaving Blockbuster’s brick-and-mortar model obsolete. While Netflix’s value soared into the billions, Blockbuster filed for bankruptcy—a cautionary tale about what happens when companies cling too tightly to old ways of thinking.

But let’s flip the script.

What about the companies that do see the future—and act on it?

Take Ørsted, an energy company once known as Danish Oil and Natural Gas. For years, Ørsted thrived on fossil fuels. But in response to geopolitical uncertainty and environmental concerns, they did something extraordinary: they pivoted. Rather than doubling down on oil and gas, in 2008: Ørsted set a vision to transform from fossil fuels to green energy. Ørsted made a bold bet on offshore wind farms and committed to becoming a global leader in renewable energy.

It was a massive risk, but it paid off.

Today, Ørsted generates more than 90% of its earnings from renewables. Their radical shift didn’t just align with the planet’s needs—it made financial sense. While some fossil fuel giants like BP have seen their valuations plummet (BP’s value dropped from $250 billion in 2006 to $77 billion today—a staggering 76% decline), Ørsted’s stock price tripled from 2017 to 2021, and is now stabilized at 2017 levels.

Ørsted has positioned itself as a leader in the energy transition.

The lesson? Those who embrace change, rather than resist it, are the ones who thrive.

The climate crisis is the greatest challenge of our time, but it also represents an enormous business opportunity. Investing in sustainable innovation isn’t just about doing the right thing; it’s about securing profitability and staying relevant in the rapidly shifting marketplace. The technologies and ideas that solve the climate crisis will define the next century, just as streaming did for entertainment.

So, here’s the question: which one are you? Are you Blockbuster, clinging to the past while the future leaves you behind? Or are you Ørsted, boldly redefining your business for what comes next?

The answer boils down to leadership. Leaders see what’s on the horizon and adapt before it’s too late. They make decisions that align not only with where the world is today but with where it’s headed tomorrow.

History rewards the bold. Will your story be one of transformation—or a cautionary tale?

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